Arsenal are currently 5th, on 47 points with 10 games to go. So the maximum number of points we can finish with is 77. If, against all odds, we get 77, I guarantee you, we’ll finish 3rd or higher. I looked at the last seven season’s minimum points required to finish 4th. Lets have a look:
Arsenal, where do we stand?
Teams finishing 4th:
2011/12 – Sp*rs (69 points)
2010/11 – Arsenal (68 points)
2009/10 – Sp*rs (70 points)
2008/09 – Arsenal (72 points)
2007/08 – Liverpool (76 points)
2006/07 – Sp*rs (70 points)
2005/ 06 Arsenal (67 points)
As you can see, statistically, you need atleast 67 points to finish 4th. That means we need minimum of 20 out of those 30 points. Sadly, even then, chances of us finishing 4th is highly unlikely as there is more competition this season.
Let’s look at our remaining fixtures:
West Brom (A)
On paper, we are the stronger side than almost all those teams. What I’m saying is, theoretically , we should be able to beat 9 out of those 10 teams. However, having lost against Norwich, Swansea, Bradford and Blackburn this season, and having witnessed our tendency to self destruct, I have no confidence on this team to be honest.
What does this mean?
This means, if you think rationally that is, we are not qualifying for the Champions League this season. I am not being able to let this thought sink in to me yet and I know most of you can’t either but we might just have to.
Of course I hope I’m wrong. Of course I hope the Spuds and Chelsea fall apart. But this time, it’s not just them bottling it, it’s about us taking our chances too which we are not. I’m just trying to point the reality of the situation and the most likely outcome of that situation and trying you make you ready so that it won’t hurt as much later.
On the positive, I quote Harvey Dent,’The night is darkest before the dawn…’ .
Is this the final push that the board and Wenger needs? Is this the wake up call? Is this the kick on the butt? Is this is not, then I don’t know what is.
Failure is not falling but refusing to get up. I hope we learnt our lesson. I hope we get back stronger than ever.
And oh yeah, ‘Arsenal is the only English team who is still in the Champions League.
Up the Arsenal.